Sequence of returns calculator
Same returns, same withdrawals, different order. See how timing alone can change what is left.
Your assumptions
Enter 1 to 100 yearly returns, each from -100 to 1000 percent. -100 means total loss for that year.
| Year | Return as entered | Balance | Return reversed | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -18% | $389,500 | 11% | $527,250 |
| 2 | 12% | $408,240 | 10% | $552,475 |
| 3 | 9% | $417,732 | 8% | $569,673 |
| 4 | 15% | $451,641 | 20% | $653,608 |
| 5 | 7% | $456,506 | -4% | $603,463 |
| 6 | -4% | $414,246 | 7% | $618,956 |
| 7 | 20% | $467,095 | 15% | $683,049 |
| 8 | 8% | $477,463 | 9% | $717,274 |
| 9 | 10% | $497,709 | 12% | $775,346 |
| 10 | 11% | $524,707 | -18% | $615,284 |
How this is calculated
Each year: withdrawal = the smaller of your withdrawal amount and the balance; balance = (balance − withdrawal) × (1 + that year’s return). Balances cannot go negative. The second column reverses your list, so average and compound returns are identical, but withdrawals meet different markets.
The default series is hypothetical, not a forecast or historical record. Assumptions: withdrawals at the start of each year, flat dollar withdrawals, no taxes, fees, or inflation adjustments.
Common questions
What is sequence-of-returns risk in retirement?
Sequence-of-returns risk is the effect of the order of investment returns while you withdraw money. Early losses alongside withdrawals can leave less money to participate in later gains, even when two return sequences have the same average return.
How does this calculator compare return sequences?
The calculator compares your entered returns with the same list in reverse order. Both scenarios use the same starting balance and withdrawals, with withdrawals at the start of each year. It excludes taxes, fees, and inflation adjustments.
Sources and verification
- SEC Investor.gov: mutual funds
Investments can lose value, and past performance does not predict future returns. Compare risks and costs, not just returns.
These sources provide general education or public records, not an endorsement of Luparius. Luparius is not affiliated with Social Security, Medicare, or the SEC.
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Published by Luparius Asset Management & Brokerage in Park City, Utah. Meet Keith Lamb, President and CEO, and ask about current services, fees, and applicable disclosures.
Educational content, not individualized investment, tax, or legal advice. Calculations are hypothetical; investment results and future income are not guaranteed. Dated videos may not reflect current rules or product terms.